Terrorist Attacks Region Wise Environmental Sciences Essay

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"The establishment of NCTC is not a State versus Centre issue but will work as a vehicle of country's combined efforts to curb terrorism".
-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [1] 
1. The data for the study was collected through various sources to analyse the efficacy of NCTC. Quantitative analysis of data was carried out for generation of results. The data were collected and analysed in three parts.
Global. The data on terrorist acts maintained by US NCTC since 2005-
2011 and available in NCTC’s annual Report on Terrorism
(b) Indian Specific. The Data maintained by Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India on terrorist incidents that occurred in Jammu and Kashmir and North East regions during year 2001-2011.
(c) Public Opinion. Public views were gathered through questionnaire adopting sampling technique.
Global
2. The US NCTC was formed in 2004 to ensure that government agencies have access to the intelligence necessary to realise their assigned missions. NCTC therefore provides statistical information to the Department of State (DOS). It also assists DOS in compiling its annual Country Reports on Terrorism (CRT) [2] and also NCTC’s Annual NCTC Report on Terrorism (NRT).
3. US NCTC uses the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS) to record statistical information on terrorist acts. This data then becomes the US government’s authoritative and unclassified database on terrorist acts available for reference. [3] The primary task of WITS is to provide terrorism statistics to the DOS for finalisation of its annual report. The WITS database contains approximate 85,000 incidents occurred worldwide. WITS data is updated on a quarterly basis.
4. The statistical data for analysis is collected from terrorism incidents occurred during 2005 to 2011 and reported in open source information. This data helps in classifying the incidents into the following [4] :
(a) Attacks in different region.
(b) Types of attacks.
(c) Victims of Attacks.
(d) Attacks against facilities.
5. Terrorist Attacks. It is evident from the Table 1 that terrorist attack increased from 2005 to 2007 and thereafter gradually reduced during 2008 to 2011. Compared to 2005, attacks were increased to 192 percent in 2007. However since then they reduced by 69 percent in 2008, 67 percent in 2009, 58 percent in 2010 and 43 percent in 2011.
TABLE 1: TERRORIST ATTACKS
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Attacks
11800
20492
22719
15708
15310
13186
9793
Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011
6. Region Wise Attacks. Data concerning region wise attacks is tabulated in Table 2. It is evident that South Asia is badly affected by the terrorist attacks. Similarly Western Hemisphere is least affected by these attacks. In South Asia the terrorist attacks continuously increased from 2005 to 2011, highest being in 2011. This indicates that terrorist attacks increased by 165 percent in 2011 as compared to 2005. In 2011, East Asia & Pacific and Europe & Eurasia region experienced less number of terrorist attacks as compared to 2010.
TABLE 2: TERRORIST ATTACKS REGION WISE
Region
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Africa
1253
422
835
718
853
879
978
East Asia & Pacific
1007
1036
1429
978
821
728
543
Europe & Eurasia
780
659
606
774
737
704
561
Near East
4230
1755
7540
4594
3297
3416
1148
South Asia
3974
3654
3607
4354
4847
5537
6573
Western Hemisphere
967
826
482
352
444
340
480
Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011
7. Type of Terrorist Attacks. The data is tabulated in Table 3. Bombing, armed attacks and kidnapping are the preferred type of attacks used from 2005 to 2011. However it is pertinent to note that suicide attacks increased from 287 in 2006 to 5283 in 2007 after which it is on decline path. A fire bombing and assault type of attacks indicate decrease trends.
TABLE 3: TYPE OF ATTACK
Type of Attack
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Armed Attack
5657
7031
7962
599
4842
4833
4290
Bombing
3280
3874
4543
4131
4050
4275
4150
Kidnapping
1462
1578
1460
1125
1039
1283
978
Unknown
159
430
219
247
709
898
638
Fire Bombing
575
574
639
535
650
707
614
Assault
408
430
550
451
479
444
345
Suicide
--
287
5283
405
299
263
279
Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011
8. Type of Weapon. Various types of weapons used for terrorist attacks are tabulated in Table 4. Improvised Explosive Device (IED), fire arm, explosive and firebomb are the preferred weapons used for attacks. IED use increased by 331 percent during 2005 to 2009 and thereafter it reduced to 11 percent in 2010 and 86 percent in 2011. During 2011 a decrease trends in all types of weapon observed.
TABLE 4: TYPE OF WEAPON USED FOR ATTACK
Type of Attack
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
IED
6922
12606
1673
21629
22976
20565
3747
Firearm
5079
3820
8287
7319
6609
6491
3713
Type of Attack
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Explosive
3295
8022
13572
15307
12864
15227
3541
Unknown
415
382
213
1673
808
881
1165
Firebomb/Incendiary
590
382
680
1544
813
6491
615
Missile/Rocket
378
1528
1029
1491
1018
613
392
Grenade
1724
1146
1411
2332
2587
2649
358
Vehicle Bomb
6964
6494
16526
8588
11120
7643
351
Mortar/Artillery
1207
2674
5394
7319
2535
2907
306
Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011
9. Victims of Attacks. The data on victims of attacks is tabulated in Table 5. Civilian, police and military forces were the prime victims of attacks. Attacks against civilians increased from 8056 in 2005 to 14636 in 2007. However in subsequent years it indicated decreasing trend. It is important to understand that attacks against military and security forces increased by 3 percent in 2010 and 2011 as compared to 2009.
TABLE 5: VICTIM TYPE
Categories
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Military/Security Forces
1079
1236
1554
1711
1334
1378
1389
Government
1014
1030
822
556
755
537
768
Children
464
618
963
816
826
663
755
Unknown
127
179
233
198
375
679
527
Other Types
547
618
932
550
710
403
484
Business
226
618
474
429
290
327
358
Politically Affiliated
254
206
198
227
223
255
166
Police
6500
3296
3836
2528
2379
2088
2423
Categories
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Civilian
8056
12772
14636
9566
8905
7313
6418
Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011
10. Attack against Facilities. The data is tabulated in Table 6. Public, transportation, residence and energy infrastructure were the preferred facilities for attacks. Attack against transportation facilities continuously maintained an increased trend till 2010 which subsequently reduced in 2011. It is important to know that after maintaining a decline trends for four years (2007-2009), attacks against energy infrastructure again increased in 2011.
TABLE 6: ATTACK AGAINST FACILITIES
Categories
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Public
464
712
921
846
767
701
2186
Transportation
2314
2759
2921
2837
2823
3004
2644
Police
456
356
489
279
351
309
358
Other Types
844
890
993
889
1660
1035
1242
Categories
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Government
346
356
342
332
332
593
453
Critical/Energy Infrastructure
361
445
336
339
285
299
438
School/Educationist
247
267
285
194
264
283
297
Residence
786
1068
1170
1007
881
1053
2056
Military
221
267
173
231
175
151
154
Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011
11. The data placed in tables is not only provide information on terrorism but also reflect trends in terrorist attacks. Critical analysis of these trends would assist in pin pointing the philosophy of terror organisations that will guide planners in developing effective counter strategies against them. The tracking of terrorist incidents will assist in building knowledge bank on peculiar/specific characteristics, trends and likely, tactics that surround terrorism. This knowledge bank than would help intelligence agencies in carrying advance analysis and research. The sole aim of following incidents as they occur is to maintain global awareness of the unrelenting threat that terrorism poses and listing the requirements to initiate strategies for curbing its growth.
Indian Specific
12. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India closely and continuously monitors the security situation with State Government and Ministry of Defence. It also maintains a data bank on the terrorist incidents occurred in India.
13. Jammu and Kashmir. The State of Jammu & Kashmir (J & K) has been affected by terrorist and secessionist violence. It is believed that violence’s were sponsored, directed, supported and controlled from the agencies situated across the border. The statistical details of terrorist incidents from the year 2001 are shown in the Table 7.
TABLE 7: TERRORIST INCIDENTS IN J & K
Year
Incidents
Security personnel Killed
Civilian killed
Terrorist Killed
2001
4522
536
919
2020
2002
4038
453
1008
1707
2003
3401
314
795
1494
2004
2565
281
707
976
2005
1990
189
557
917
2006
1667
151
389
591
2007
1092
110
158
472
2008
708
75
91
339
2009
499
79
71
239
2010
488
69
47
232
2011
340
33
31
100
Source: Annual Reports 2001-2011 Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India
14. The infiltration from across the borders and the terrorist activities in the Kashmir showed a significant decline. The incidents of terrorist violence declined from 4522 in 2001, 1990 in 2005 to 340 in 2011. The number of security forces killed declined from 536 in 2001, 189 in 2005 to 33 in 2011. The number of civilians killed also declined from 919 in 2001, 557 in 2005 to 31 in 2011. The number of terrorists killed declined from 2020 in 2001,917 in 2005 to 100 in 2011. Hence it can be opined that the internal security situation in India in 2011 showed distinct signs of improvement over the previous years.
15. Infiltrations. The reported infiltration attempts in J & K since 2001 is indicated in the Table 8. During the period from 2001 to 2011, infiltration attempts have indicated a downward trend (exception in year 2005 and year 2010). The number of infiltration attempts in 2011 is 247 as compared to 489 in 2010. This indicates that infiltration incidents were reduced by 49.5 percent from the last year.
TABLE 8: INFILTRATION ATTEMPTS IN J & K
Year
Incidents
2001
2417
2002
1504
2003
1373
2004
537
2005
597
2006
573
2007
535
2008
342
2009
485
2010
489
2011
247
Source: Annual Reports 2001-2011 Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India
16. North Eastern Region. The terrorist incidents in North Eastern Region are given in Table 9.
TABLE 9: TERRORIST INCIDENTS IN NORTH EASTERN REGION
Year
Incidents
Security personnel Killed
Civilian killed
Extremist/Terrorist Killed
2001
1335
175
600
572
2002
1312
147
454
571
2003
1332
90
494
523
2004
1234
110
414
404
2005
1332
70
393
405
2006
1366
76
309
395
2007
1489
79
498
472
2008
1561
46
466
339
2009
1297
42
264
239
2010
773
20
94
232
2011
627
32
70
100
Source: Annual Reports 2001-2011 Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India
17. In the North-Eastern States as well, the number of incidents of terrorist violence has come down from 1297 in 2009 to 627 in 2011. The number of civilians killed has also come down from 264 in 2009 to 70 in 2011.
18. Current Status. Except for the serial bomb blasts in Mumbai in July, 2011 and the bomb blast in Delhi High Court in September, 2011 by and large terrorism in the country has been under control. A total of 60 terrorist elements were neutralised during 2009 to 2011. A major component of Indian Mujahidin was neutralised in January, 2012. In 2011 there was a definite decline in the number of terrorist incidents and civilian & Special Forces casualties compared to 2010. The year 2011 witnessed 30 percent decrease in the number of terrorist incidents and 34 percent and 52 percent decrease in civilian and Special Forces fatalities respectively compared to last year. One hundred terrorists were neutralised during 2011.
19. The decline trends of terrorist attacks is the offshoot of various counter terrorism strategies adopted by the central government in association with the state government to neutralise the efforts and capabilities of militants to disturb peace in the state and to contain cross border infiltration. These measures includes
(a) Strengthening of border management.
(b) Multi-tiered and multimodal deployment along international border/line of control and infiltration routes.
(c) Construction of border fencing.
(d) Improved technology, weapons and equipments for Special Forces.
(e) Improved intelligence.
(f) Operational coordination.
(g) Synergizing intelligence flow to check infiltration and pro-active action against terrorists within the state.
Difference in Indian and US Method of Maintaining Data
20. It is evident that the formation of US NCTC assisted US in maintaining detailed and deliberate data on terrorist internally and globally. US NCTC not only classify this data into various categories as mentioned earlier but also uses this data in understanding terrorist organisations philosophy to pin point use of technology by terrorists, category of population/group and important facilities which are likely to be targeted by terrorist. This data bank will also be shared by other intelligence agencies of Department of Homeland Securities for activation of appropriate agency. US NCTC takes precedence in accessing terrorist data collected by intelligence agencies and shares it through WITS to maintain a strong databank on terror operative’s modules. Whereas data available in India through annual reports, published by Ministry of Home Affairs lacks these minutes’ details which if made available will assist Indian security agencies in initiating/adopting proactive approaches against terrorism.
Public Opinion
21. Sample Design. A questionnaire on the NCTC, placed as appendix, was circulated to collect data on NCTC awareness. Thirty personnel were randomly selected for data collection. Quantitative analysis of data was carried out for generation of results. The details of collected data/responses are listed in subsequent tables.
TABLE 10: NCTC EXPENDED FORM
Options
Response
(a) National Counter Terrorism Centre.
30
(b) National Cosmetic Technology Limited.
--
(c) Narcotics Counter Terrorism Committee.
--
(d) Not Sure.
--
TABLE 11: THE PURPOSE OF NCTC
Options
Response
(a) To arrest terrorists.
--
(b) To strengthen counter terrorism network in country
30
(c) To check the powers of States.
--
(d) To act as neutral agency in handling crimes.
--
TABLE 12: URGENCY TO ESTABLISH TERRORISM RESPONSE AGENCY
AT NATIONAL LEVEL
Options
Response
Yes
30
No
--
Not Sure
--
TABLE 13: CENTRE-STATE RELATIONS SHOULD ON NATIONAL ISSUES LIKE COMBATING TERRORISM. WHICH HAS NO BOUNDARIES
Options
Response
Fully Agree
24
Partially agree
2
Not Agree
3
Undecided
1
TABLE 14: STATE VIEWS ON ISSUES AFFECTING THEIR INTERESTS
Options
Response
Fully Agree
11
Partially agree
19
Not Agree
--
TABLE 15: REPRESENTATIVES OF SECURITY AGENCIES
IN NATIONAL AGENCY
Options
Response
Yes
26
No
2
Not Sure
2
TABLE 16: REQUIREMENT TO MODIFY INDIAN NCTC MODEL
Options
Response
Yes
18
No
--
Not Sure
12
TABLE 17: ‘WHITE PAPER’ ON THE SUBJECT TO GENERATE
PUBLIC OPINION
Options
Response
Fully Agree
12
Partially agree
13
Not Agree
5
TABLE 18: STRINGENCY OF INDIAN PROHIBITIVE ACT 1967
Options
Response
Fully Agree
1
Partially agree
17
Not Agree
12
TABLE 19: ARMED FORCES AS PART OF NATIONAL AGENCY
Options
Response
Fully Agree
15
Partially agree
5
Not Agree
10
TABLE 20: REQUIREMENT OF A TRAINED/ EXPERIENCED OFFICER FOR THE APPOINTMENT OF DIRECTOR GENERAL OF NCTC
Options
Response
Fully Agree
23
Partially agree
6
Not Agree
--
Un decided
1
TABLE 21: NCTC WORK PRINCIPLE ‘CENTRALISED CONTROL AND DECENTRALISED EXECUTION’
Options
Response
Fully Agree
22
Partially agree
7
Not Agree
--
Un decided
1
TABLE 22: POWER OF STATE TO DEMAND CENTRAL FORCES IN ADDRESSING TERRORISM
Options
Response
Fully Agree
7
Partially agree
9
Not Agree
14
TABLE 23: ON EMPOWERING LOCAL AUTHORITIES TO HANDLE REGIONAL TERRORISM AND SHOULD APPROPRIATELY BE EQUIPPED
Options
Response
Fully Agree
21
Partially agree
8
Not Agree
1
TABLE 24: TRAINING TO CIVILIAN POPULATION ON BASIC CONCEPTS IN HANDLING TERRORISM
Options
Response
Fully Agree
21
Partially agree
4
Not Agree
5
TABLE 25: CITIZENS RESPONSIBILITY TO SUPPORT NATIONAL CAUSE
Options
Response
Fully Agree
27
Partially agree
3
Not Agree
--
TABLE 26: INVOLVEMENT OF SPECIAL FORCES IN HANDLING TERRORIST ISSUES
Options
Response
Fully Agree
10
Partially agree
16
Not Agree
4
TABLE 27: AWARENESS OF NATIONAL POPULATION ON TERRORISM AS PART OF CENTRE/STATE SUBJECT
Options
Response
>50 percent
7
<50 percent
18
Not Aware at all
5
TABLE 28: CONTRIBUTION OF SECURITY EXPERT/THINKERS IN FINDING SOLUTIONS TO ISSUES CONCERNING NATIONAL SECURITY
Options
Response
Effectively contributing
4
Ineffective
16
Consider as part time activity
10
TABLE 29: IMPLEMENTATION DEADLINE (YEAR 2012)
Options
Response
Yes
3
No
16
Not Sure
11
TABLE 30: DELAYED IMPLEMENTATION DUE FREQUENT CHANGE OVER OF IMPORTANT MINISTERS
Options
Response
Fully Agree
8
Partially agree
20
Not Agree
2
TABLE 31: NEED OF STRONG POLITICAL WILL TOWARDS TERRORIST
Options
Response
Fully Agree
26
Partially agree
3
Not Agree
1
TABLE 32: NCTC INDEPENDENCE THROUGH CONSTITUTION OF INDIA
Options
Response
Fully Agree
25
Partially agree
4
Not Agree
1
TABLE 33: THE TENURE OF NCTC DIRECTORS
Options
Response
Fully Agree
21
Partially agree
7
Not Agree
2
TABLE 34: THE JOINT DIRECTOR FROM INDIAN LEGAL SERVICES
Options
Response
Fully Agree
27
Partially agree
2
Not Agree
1
22. Quantity analysis of data reflects the following.
(a) All respondents were aware of the full form and purpose of the NCTC.
(b) All agreed that there is an urgent requirement to establish terrorism response agency at national level.
(c) 80 percent agreed that Centre-State relations should not be strained on issues like combating terrorism whereas 11 percent did not agree to the statement.
(d) 36 percent fully and 64 percent partially agreed that state should be consulted on issues affecting their interests.
(e) 86 percent agreed that national agency should have representatives from all agencies dealing with security agencies.
(f) 60 percent agreed that the Indian model of NCTC requires modification to fit into Indian security environment where as 40 percent were not sure whether proposed model require modification or not.
(g) 40 percent agreed for generating public opinion through ‘White Paper’ whereas 43 percent were partially and 17 percent not agreed.
(h) 57 percent agreed that Indian Prohibitive Act 1967 is very stringent in tackling terrorism issues.
(j) 50 percent agreed that armed forces must be made part of NCTC.
(k) 77 percent opined that the appointment of Director General NCTC should be held by a trained/ experienced officer who has exceptional ability in handling terrorism at national level. He/she can be from Armed Forces / Paramilitary/ Police/ IB etc.
(l) On command and control 73 percent opined that NCTC should work on the principle of centralised control and decentralised execution by establishing regional chapters in each states.
(m) Only 23 percent agreed that states should be given authority in demanding central forces including armed forces in tacking terrorism whereas 46 percent opined otherwise.
(n) 70 percent agreed on empowering local authority to handle regional terrorism and equipping them towards the same.
(o) 70 percent agreed that civil population needs to be trained on basic concepts of handling terrorism. They also opined that confidentiality of information should also be maintained and state should endeavour to protect the concerned individual from being attacked by terrorist groups.
(aa) On informed decision 90 percent agreed that it is every ones responsibility to support national cause and address national issues.
(ab) On Special Forces employment 33 percent opined that their involvement in handling terrorist issues would bring faster result as compared to state controlled actions.
(ac) It is reflected from the responses (60 percent) that less than 50 percent general population is unaware, whether terrorism is a State or a Central subject.
(ad) The laxity in security thinking was highlighted as 53 percent agreed that security expert/ thinkers are not effectively contributing in resolving security issues and are looking the task of security as a part time/ post retirement activity.
(ae) 53 percent opined that India is not in a condition to conceptualise/ implement NCTC model in 2012.
(af) On frequent changeover of political portfolios especially the Home Ministers, 66 percent opined that it is one of the major concerns for delayed implementation of the concept.
(ag) It is strongly (87 percent) felt that strong political will is the need of the hour and to be rigorously followed by our political leaders.
(ah) 83 percent opined that NCTC should be made an independent body duly supported by the Constitution of India.
(ai) On the tenure of NCTC Directors, 70 percent agreed that their tenure should be fixed and they should be answerable for their actions in the Court of Law.
(aj) It is opined by 90 percent that one of the Joint Directors of NCTC should be an officer from Indian Legal Services who can render legal advice to Director and can effectively represent terrorist cases in India as well as in International forum.

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